Live since August 2024 (22+ months), verified on Wikifolio. Backtested across 10 years — including two bear markets (2018, 2022), the COVID crash (2020), and a strategy underperformance year (2024). Nothing hidden — including the down months.
| Metric | Monthly Strategy | Weekly Strategy | Nasdaq-100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return (2016–2025) | +1,973.2% | +2,919.7% | +449.7% |
| Avg. annual return (CAGR) | +35.4% p.a. | +40.6% p.a. | +18.6% p.a. |
| Best single year | +209.0% (2020) | +347.6% (2020) | +47.6% (2020) |
| Worst single year | -22.8% (2024) | -19.9% (2021) | -33.0% (2022) |
| Max drawdown | -31.6% | -53.1% | -33.0% |
| Years beating benchmark | 5 out of 10 | 6 out of 10 | Baseline |
| Year | Monthly Strategy | Weekly Strategy | Nasdaq-100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +78.9% | +65.3% | +5.9% |
| 2017 | +29.5% | +5.8% | +31.5% |
| 2018 | -10.1% | -4.5% | -1.0% |
| 2019 | +26.5% | +33.4% | +38.0% |
| 2020 (COVID recovery) | +209.0% | +347.6% | +47.6% |
| 2021 | -5.8% | -19.9% | +26.6% |
| 2022 (Bear market) | -6.5% | -7.5% | -33.0% |
| 2023 | +86.7% | +51.3% | +53.8% |
| 2024 | -22.8% | +71.7% | +24.9% |
| 2025 | +100.3% | +57.3% | +20.2% |
| Total (10 years) | +1,973.2% | +2,919.7% | +449.7% |
The headline number — +1,973% over 10 years — was driven in part by exceptional market conditions (the 2020 COVID recovery and the 2023–2025 AI-momentum phase). A more honest forward expectation, adjusted for these structural tailwinds, is approximately 25–28% CAGR per year — still nearly double the Nasdaq-100's long-term average, but a number you can plan around.
We anchor our expectations there. So should you.
The most common investor fear is bad timing: "What if I start right before a crash?" We ran the numbers on every possible 3-year and 5-year investment window in our 10-year backtest.
In every possible 3-year period within our backtest — regardless of entry point — the Monthly Strategy produced a positive return. See the Definitive Backtest Report for the full distribution of outcomes.
In every possible 5-year period within our backtest — regardless of entry point — the Monthly Strategy produced a positive return and outperformed the Nasdaq-100 benchmark. Worst outcome: +126.6%. Best: +909.5%. Average: +345.8%.
In 2024, the Monthly Strategy returned -22.8% while the Nasdaq-100 returned +24.9% — an underperformance of 47.7 percentage points. This was the single hardest year in the entire backtest, and we include it precisely because honest reporting requires showing the years the strategy fails, not just the years it wins.
Momentum strategies have a known weakness: they underperform during sharp regime rotations, when prior momentum leaders sell off and new leaders have not yet established a signal strong enough to be selected. 2024 was precisely this type of market — a violent rotation away from the prior AI-momentum leadership that had driven 2023.
In contrast, the strategy protected capital in the 2022 bear market (Monthly: -6.5% vs Nasdaq-100: -33.0%), delivered extraordinary returns during the COVID recovery in 2020 (+209.0% vs +47.6%), and recovered strongly in 2025 (+100.3% vs +20.2%). The strategy is designed for long-term compounding across different market regimes — not for winning every individual year. Across all 61 possible 5-year holding windows in our 10-year backtest, the Monthly Strategy beat the Nasdaq-100 in every single one.
The next signal arrives on the 1st of next month. Five minutes is all it takes.